A new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll shows former President Donald Trump up 4 percentage points on President Joe Biden with less than a year until the 2024 presidential election.
The poll, conducted between October 30 and November 7, finds Trump leading Biden 46 percent to 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
Trump still leads by 4 percentage points (40 percent to 36 percent) when adding third-party candidates in the running, including Democrat turned independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., scion of the prestigious Kennedy political family.
The poll surveyed 800 registered voters in the Grand Canyon State.
Arizona voter sentiment was part of a broader poll of seven swing states, with Trump leading all but one in a rematch of the 2020 election.
Trump leads Biden by 9 points in Georgia and North Carolina. The Republican is up by 4 points in Nevada, three in Pennsylvania, and two in Wisconsin. Biden leads Trump by 1 percentage point in Michigan.
Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in six of the seven swing states we surveyed this month, and adding third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West to the ballot does not change that. https://t.co/zVoyscacZI pic.twitter.com/iLdJR5KHbl
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) November 10, 2023
Kennedy, who announced last month that he was leaving the Democratic Party to run as an independent, is polling at 10 percent overall in the swing states, with far-left independent candidate Cornel West picking up about 2 percent support.
But the third-party candidates do nothing to change Trump’s growing lead over Biden.
“When third-party candidates are removed from the ballot, Biden loses his lead in Michigan, as both he and Trump earned 43% support,” the poll notes. “The remaining six states continued to lean in favor of Trump in a head-to-head, including Nevada, where Biden led Trump by 3 points last month but is now trailing him by 3 points.”
A New York Times/Siena College poll earlier this week found Trump topping Biden in four of five swing states — with the former president up by 5 percentage points (49 percent to 44 percent) in Arizona. In Nevada, Trump was leading by a whopping 11 percent (52 percent to 41 percent); 6 percent in Georgia (49 percent to 43 percent); and by 5 points in Michigan (48 percent to 43 percent).
Biden bested Trump by 2 percentage points in Wisconsin (47 percent to 45 percent), in the Times poll.
The same happened in the Emerson College poll released this week. Biden trails in five of six battleground state polls, only leading in Michigan (45 percent to 43 percent) among likely voters. In Arizona, Trump edges Biden by 2 points (46 percent to 44 percent).
“Biden is generally underperforming his 2020 support with voters under 30, whereas Trump has locked in his support with middle-aged voters,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
When asked by a reporter whether he believes he’s trailing in the critical swing states, the president said, “No, I don’t.” He then falsely claimed that he was leading Trump in eight of 10 recent polls despite no evidence to support that assertion.
– – –
M.D. Kittle is the National Political Editor for The Star News Network.
Photo “Joe Biden” by Joe Biden.
