Kari Lake, Mark Brnovich Have Highest Favorability in Their Arizona Primary Races

Kari Lake, Mark Brnovich


A new poll from OH Predictive Insights shows former news anchor Kari Lake with the highest approval rate of Republicans running for governor of Arizona and Attorney General Mark Brnovich with the highest approval rate of Republicans running for the U.S. Senate.

Lake scored 60% with Republican voters, well ahead of former Congressman Matt Salmon with 51% and former State Treasurer Kimberly Yee at 49%.

On the Senate side, Brnovich has 61% compared to veteran Michael McGuire next with 43% and businessman Jim Lamon’s 39%. Blake Masters, a protégé of GOP tech billionaire Peter Thiel, entered the race after the poll was conducted.

According to a general election matchup, Hobbs’ approval rating is slightly higher than Lake’s, 40% to 39%. Hobbs has very high name recognition due to her high-profile fight against the Maricopa County ballot audit. Hobbs also has a fairly high disapproval rating relative to the other candidates in the poll, 27%.

She once referred to Donald Trump supporters as “neo-Nazis.” Also, she previously tweeted, “The President is on the side of the freaking Nazis. Don’t just say stuff – DO SOMETHING!!!” She has not deleted the tweets.

A general election matchup for U.S. Senate shows incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Mark Kelly with a higher approval rating than Brnovich, 50% to 40%.

Senate incumbents rarely lose reelection, with a 98%+ success rate. However, Kelly has the highest disapproval rating of any candidate in the survey at 40%. Brnovich’s is at 27%. Kelly is considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the U.S. Senate.

CNN ranked his seat the fifth most likely to flip parties next year, and Politico labeled him one of the four most vulnerable Democratic senators.

Kelly came under fire last year for making a joke comparing Latinos to primates. During a speech given at a Boy Scouts event, he said his brother, who was also an astronaut, had his DNA affected by spending a year in space on the International Space Station.

“I think the word hasn’t gotten out how bad it is for him. You know, it’s gotten so bad, that we recently had to release him back into the wild,” Kelly said. “He’s like halfway between an orangutan and a Howler Monkey. We’ve even changed his name to Rodrigo. He lives in the woods.”

In the Arizona secretary of state general election race, Democratic former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes has a 28% approval rate, slightly ahead of state legislators Michelle Ugenti-Rita (R-Scottsdale) at 26%, Mark Finchem (R-Tucson) at 25%, and Reginald Bolding (D-Phoenix) last at 23%. State Representative Shawnna Bolick (R-Phoenix), who is also in the race, was not included since she announced her run after the poll was started.

On the Democratic primary side, the poll found, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is leading the pack for governor, with a 63% approval rate. She is trailed by former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez with 44% and State Representative Aaron Lieberman (D-Phoenix) at 42%.

Two other candidates running for governor on the Republican side appear to lack enough name recognition to score very highly. More than 50% of Republicans surveyed said their opinion of Karin Taylor Robson and Steve Gaynor is unknown, resulting in only 37% approval for Robson and 34% for Gaynor.

The poll also found that 43% of voters prefer that Republicans run the state, compared to 42% who prefer Democrats. There are 4% more Republicans than Democrats in Arizona, and independents outnumber Democrats.

The poll was an online opt-in survey, and it surveyed registered voters, not likely registered voters. In contrast, polls by Rasmussen Reports, a polling company that usually surveys “likely voters,” voters who have a steady history of voting, favor Republicans more than most other polls.

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Rachel Alexander is a reporter at the Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Rachel on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kari Lake” by Kari Lake.  Background
Photo “Arizona Capitol” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0.




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