Elections Analysis Delivers Bad News for Arizona Republicans Following Landmark Abortion Ruling

Jaun Ciscomani and Kari Lake (composite image)

A nonpartisan elections analysis announced two rating changes on Wednesday that endanger Republicans for competitive races in the battleground state of Arizona following a ruling that imposed a near-total abortion ban.

The Arizona Supreme Court decided on April 9 that an 1864 law, which allows for abortion only when the life of the mother is at risk and makes performing or helping procure the procedure a crime, can take effect. The ruling, which has supercharged the issue of abortion in the swing state, prompted Sabato’s Crystal Ball to move the expected Senate matchup between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake to “Leans Democratic,” as well as shifting GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s reelection bid to “Toss-Up.”

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Arizona Poll Finds Trump Leads Biden, Gallego Has Slight Lead over Lake

Donald Trump, Ruben Gallego, Joe Biden, Kari Lake

Former President Donald Trump currently has the support of just under half of Arizona voters and boasts a slight lead over President Joe Biden, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The Emerson College poll found 48 percent of registered voters in Arizona support Trump’s bid to return to the White House, while 44 percent want to see Biden elected to a second term.

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Key Democrats Endorse Gallego After Sinema Retirement

Rep. Ruben Gallego

U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., now has the backing on Gov. Katie Hobbs and U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly in his bid for U.S. Senate.

The endorsements come after Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced last week she’s retiring at the end of the year and not seeking re-election. If she decided to run, it would have set up an unusual three-way race between two major parties and an incumbent. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022.

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Past Support by Ruben Gallego for Illegal Immigrants in Military Highlighted by Kari Lake as Bill Would Trade Service for Citizenship

Ruben Gallego

Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake highlighted the previous support by Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) for legislation that would have allowed illegal immigrants who entered the United States as children to serve in the U.S. Armed Forces.

Lake noted Gallego’s previous support for the legislation after Tucker Carlson posted a discussion of a bill currently in the U.S. House that would allow illegal immigrants to serve in the military in exchange for an expedited path to citizenship.

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Lake Holds 33-Point Lead in Arizona GOP Senate Primary, Statistically Tied with Gallego Among All Voters If Race Includes Sinema

Kari Lake Senate Candidate

Kari Lake holds a commanding, 33-point lead in the race to secure the Arizona Republican Party (AZGOP) nomination to run for U.S. Senate, according to a poll released Wednesday.

Pollsters additionally found Lake statistically tied with Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03), who is poised to secure the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, when Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) was included in the survey.

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Arizona U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego Offers Tepid Support for Schumer-Sinema Border Bill Called ‘Slap in the Face’ by Kari Lake

U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) appeared to offer his tepid support for the bipartisan border bill that Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) helped craft and unveiled Sunday. His support is contrasted by Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, who may face a three-way race with Gallego and Sinema in November, called the legislation a “slap in the face.”

Shortly after the announcement of the border bill, created in a joint effort that included Senators Sinema, Chuck Schumer (D-NY) James Lankford (R-OK) and Chris Murphy (D-CT), Gallego wrote in a post to X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, that the bill should be taken seriously.

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Kari Lake Campaign Declares Sen. Sinema Has ‘No Path to Victory’ as Schumer-Sinema Border Bill Unveiled

The U.S. Senate campaign for Kari Lake told The Arizona Sun Times that Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) “has no path to victory” just before the former Democrat unveiled her Senate bill to address the border crisis with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

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Anti-Sinema PAC Releases Ad Bashing Senator One Day After Kari Lake Ad Calls Gallego, Sinema Biden’s ‘Enablers’

Replace Sinema PAC

A political action committee that endorses Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) released a new advertisement targeting Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) on Tuesday, with its release timed one day after Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake released her own commercial labeling Gallego and Sinema as “enablers” of President Joe Biden.

“When Republicans take back the U.S. Senate, we will fix the problems caused by [Biden] and his enablers [Sinema] and [Gallego],” wrote Lake in a Monday post to X, formerly Twitter, containing her campaign’s new ad.

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Democratic Poll Shows Kari Lake Beating Rep. Ruben Gallego, Sinema Losing by Nearly 20 Points

Lake Gallego

Polling released on Wednesday by a polling firm heavily associated with the Democratic Party showed Kari Lake beating Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) in the race to replace Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who was 19 points behind her likely Republican challenger.

The Public Policy Polling survey released Wednesday showed Lake has the support of 36 of Arizona voters, edging out Gallego, who has the support of 35 percent. Sinema was 18 points behind Gallego and 19 points behind Sinema, receiving the support of just 17 percent of support, according to the pollsters.

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Gallego Still Silent over Harvard President’s Antisemitism Controversy, Plagiarism Allegations Despite Pressure from Kari Lake, NRSC

Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03), who is running to represent Arizona in the U.S. Senate, continues to hold his silence regarding Harvard University president Claudine Gay. The congressman’s campaign has not responded to multiple Arizona Sun Times press inquiries after Gay refused to clearly state in Congress that calling for the death of Jews violates the university’s code of conduct, and now faces at least three plagiarism accusations.

The Sun Times reported on Monday that Gallego’s campaign did not respond to a press inquiry seeking a comment about Gay’s controversial testimony. On Tuesday, the Gallego campaign did not respond to a second press inquiry from The Sun Times that asked about about Gay’s antisemitism scandal and the subsequent plagiarism allegations levied against her.

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Sen. Tom Cotton Endorses Kari Lake, ‘The Fighter Arizona Needs’

Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) endorsed Kari Lake to represent Arizona in the U.S. Senate on Monday, stating the former newswoman and gubernatorial candidate “will stand up to the Biden agenda and put Arizonans first” if elected.

Lake wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that she was grateful for Cotton’s endorsement, calling him “a conservative warrior in the Senate.” Lake wrote that she looks “forward to working with Senator Cotton to secure the border” in a future Republican Senate majority.

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NRSC Launches Arizona Ad Campaign, Labels Rep. Gallego, Sen. Sinema ‘Deadbeat Dad’ and ‘Liberal Democrat’

The influential National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) released a new advertisement targeting Arizona voters on Monday that labels Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) a “deadbeat dad” and Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) a “liberal Democrat.” The ad is the latest indication the political action committee will support Lake, should she secure the Republican nomination.

In a 30-second ad, the narrator bemoaned “Rotten Ruben Gallego” for being “a spokesman for a crooked bank that targeting immigrants,” referencing a March report exposing a bank he founded that was meant to cater to illegal immigrants. Federal regulators eventually determined the bank’s founder illegally sold shares.

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Poll Reportedly Shows Sen. Sinema Losing Re-Election Despite ‘Pulling Votes from Lake’ in 3-Way Contest

A new survey reportedly conducted last month was revealed Monday, and suggests Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) is polling in third place against Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) and former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, despite apparently pulling a significant number of Republican voters.

The poll was commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and obtained by Puck News. The poll allegedly shows Gallego in first place with the support of 41 percent of Arizona voters and Lake in second place with 37 percent. Sinema finished in a distant third place, with the support of just 17 percent of Arizonans.

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Senator Sinema Calls Herself Arizona’s ‘Most Liberal Legislator’ in Newly Resurfaced Audio

Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) declared herself to be “the most liberal legislator in the State of Arizona” in a 2006 radio interview that was shared by Kari Lake’s campaign for Senate on Tuesday.

The newly resurfaced video was recording during Sinema’s appearance on “The Ed Schultz Show” in February, 2006. Sinema, who was a state legislator at the time, declared herself to be the “most liberal” of her colleagues after Schultz asked about her political identity.

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Arizona Rep. Gallego Quietly Deletes 2021 Statement Demanding Israel-Hamas Ceasefire over ‘Human Rights Implications’

Some time after Hamas launched its devastating surprise attack against Israel on October 7, Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) quietly deleted a 2021 press release from his official House website that expressed human rights concerns about Israel’s tactics during the conflict with Hamas.

The press release from Gallego, who is now running for U.S. Senate in Arizona, came in response to violence a period of violence in Israel and Palestine in May of 2021. Protesters were initially upset by an Israeli court’s intention to evict six Palestinian families from contested territory, and some ultimately threw stones at Israeli police. This provoked an Israeli police response that included the use of tear gas, rubber bullets, and stun grenades during a raid at the Al-Aqsa mosque.

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Arizona Democrats Silent After Rep. Gallego Refuses Questions over Israel and Palestine Record

The Arizona Democratic Party (AZDP) did not respond to a comment request from The Arizona Sun Times on Monday after news of its $10,000 donation to the Senate campaign of Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) broke the same day the Senate candidate refused to answer questions about his voting record on Palestine and Israel.

Gallego was captured refusing to answer five questions about his votes that would either provide aid to the Hamas terrorist group or deny aid to Israel on Thursday in a video uploaded to social media by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).

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Kari Lake Files to Run for US Senate in Arizona Ahead of October 10 Announcement

Former Arizona news anchor and gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake filed Federal Election Commission (FEC) paperwork to run for U.S. Senate to represent Arizona in 2024 on October 3, with the filing coming only days after she announced a “Kari Lake Announcement Rally” in Phoenix on October 10.

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Kyrsten Sinema Lays Out Unorthodox ‘Path to Victory’ in Swing-State Arizona

Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona argued her “path to victory” to reclaim her Senate seat in 2024 would be to garner more support from Republicans than Democrats and win the majority of independent voters, according to a donor memo reported by NBC News on Monday.

Sinema has yet to launch a reelection bid, but could face Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and former Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who is inching toward a campaign, in a general election next year. The senator’s memo argues that if she runs for another term, Sinema could secure the seat with  60 percent to 70 percent support from independents, as well as 25 percent to 35 percent of Republicans and 10 percent to 20 percent of Democrats, according to NBC News.

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Arizona Expected to Receive Over $800 Million in 2024 Political Advertising, Most of Any Battleground State

Arizona is projected to be the recipient of nearly $1 billion in political advertising during the 2024 cycle, meaning the Grand Canyon State will receive the highest share of spending of any battleground state, and the second highest of any state in the union, should the projections be correct.

The state is expected to see about $821 million in advertising over the 2024 political cycle, according to a new report published by AdImpact. Arizona will receive almost $100 million more than the second highest battleground state, Pennsylvania, which is estimated to receive $725 million.

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Arizona Republicans Prefer Kari Lake for Senate in Poll Showing Sheriff Lamb Trails Rep. Gallego

Kari Lake, the former gubernatorial candidate, has emerged as the preferred choice for U.S. Senate among a plurality of Arizona Republicans, with a 31-point lead over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in a recent poll. The data also showed Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) winning a three-way contest between Lamb and Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).

Lake was the first choice of 42 percent of Arizona Republicans, according to a recent Emerson College Polling survey. Pollsters found just 11 percent of respondents preferred Lamb. An additional 7 percent of Republicans support former Senate candidate Blake Masters, 2 percent support businessman Jim Lamon, and 2 percent support Brian Wright.

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GOP Targets Three Vulnerable Democrats in Quest to Win Senate, House Control Too Early to Predict

Republicans would need to win three of the 2024 toss-up Senate races to retake control of the chamber but appear to be facing a more uphill battle to keep control of the House.

Thirty-three of 100 Senate seats are up for grabs next year. Right now, Democrats have a 51-49 majority, which includes 48 party members and three independents who caucus with them.

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Experts Weigh In on Potential Three-Way Senate Race in Arizona

Arizona’s 2024 U.S. Senate election is expected to be highly contentious and competitive as the campaign will likely feature a three-way race in the general election, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who has yet to announce a reelection bid, currently holds the seat in question; Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has already launched a Senate run and former Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is weighing a bid. Arizona political strategists told the DCNF that there are various factors and scenarios at play that make this potential race highly contentious, and likely a tossup.

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Kari Lake Bashes Rep. Ruben Gallego for Reported Involvement with Failed Bank Plan that Took Money from Latinos

Republican Kari Lake released a statement Monday, bashing Arizona Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) after a report surfaced that he was involved in creating a bank aimed at helping the Hispanic community, which ultimately fell through and took money from some Latinos.

“These troubling revelations should be concerning to every single voter in Arizona. Ruben is just another corrupt politician looking to line his own pockets at the expense of everyday Arizonans. Despite being a Bernie-worshiping socialist, Ruben will always put his own financial interests first. Arizona deserves better than a craven man willing to sell out his constituents at a moment’s notice for an easy buck. I believe Arizonans are ready for a new generation of citizen leaders who are ready to work for the people,” Lake said in an email to the press.

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Kari Lake Responds to Rumor She Is Considering Running for U.S. Senate

Kari Lake is appealing the dismissal of her lawsuit contesting the results of a botched election for Arizona governor, which placed her opponent, Democrat Katie Hobbs, in office, but rumors are swirling in the mainstream media that she is moving on and considering running for U.S. Senate.

The rumors began when CNN reporter Kate Sullivan tweeted on Monday, “I’m told Kari Lake is considering running for the US Senate seat held by Kyrsten Sinema in 2024.” Newsweek published an article titled, “Kari Lake Might Have Finally Given up Her Hopes of Becoming Governor.”

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Arizona Democrats Call for Permanent Solution on 10th DACA Anniversary

On the tenth anniversary of the implementation of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), a law that gives illegal aliens who were brought to America as children immunity from deportation, Arizona’s Democrats are calling for a permanent solution. 

Today marks the 10th anniversary of #DACA, said Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ-03). “It’s a reminder that we have a moral obligation to protect Dreamers in AZ and across the nation. We must guarantee certainty for those who have known no other home but this one.”

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