Just three days after tech mogul Elon Musk acquired Twitter, promising to bring free speech to the platform, the social media giant suspended Arizona secretary of state candidate Mark Finchem. The election is eight days away, and the Trump-endorsed state representative is running on a platform of combating voter fraud – a contentious topic that raises hackles on the Right and Left.
Finchem received a notice from Twitter Monday afternoon telling him, “We’ve temporarily limited some of your account features.” It went on to say, “We have determined this account violated the Twitter Rules. Specifically for:” However, there was no reason specified.
Don’t look now, but Democrats’ 8-point lead in the generic Congressional ballot question from a month ago has evaporated in the latest Economist-YouGov poll of registered voters, which now shows the race for Congress tied, 44 percent to 44 percent on Sept. 24-27.
On Aug. 28-30, Democrats were leading Economist-YouGov’s generic ballot 46 percent to 38 percent. Leading the change in the state of the race is largely an apparent collapse of support for Democrats among younger adults, and a strengthening of support for Republicans among older adults.
Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial nominee says she will conduct a wide-ranging tour to answer voters’ questions while her Democrat opponent remains noticeably absent from the campaign trail.
Kari Lake said in a video posted to her Twitter account that she is announcing an “Ask Me Anything” tour in response to Secretary of State Katie Hobbs’s refusal to share a stage with her, escalating what has been a one-sided war in that arena.
There has been a lot of talk during this election cycle about “voter enthusiasm;” which side has it, what are its causes, and what might it all mean for the final result. Much of it is propaganda that should be ignored, but there are some numbers and data that can help illuminate the terrain. All that attention is appropriate, given that each and every election depends entirely on who shows up to vote.
Let’s start with the propaganda.
On primary election day in Arizona, gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake’s campaign is disputing a recent Emerson poll that shows her in a statistical tie with her main opponent, Karrin Taylor Robson.
The poll, which was conducted between July 28 and July 30 among 600 “very likely Republican primary voters and individuals who already voted,” shows Robson with a slight 47 percent to 46 percent edge over.
Two polls released this week have found most American voters want limits on abortion.
Results of a Trafalgar Group/Convention of States poll released Wednesday found 57.6 percent of American voters want abortion to be legal in only specific circumstances, while a Rasmussen Reports survey published Tuesday showed 67 percent of likely U.S. voters say abortion should not be legal past the first three months of pregnancy.
Despite the narrative of the abortion industry and its political and media allies, several recent polls show the majority of Americans agree the Supreme Court should overturn Roe v. Wade and return decisions about abortion to the states.
Tim Carney at the Washington Examiner observed a YouGov poll published last week found 64% of Americans believe the Mississippi law that is at the center of the Supreme Court case – one that bans abortions past 15 weeks of pregnancy – is either acceptable, as is, or not restrictive enough.
A majority Americans begin 2022 full of worry and dread. During President Biden’s first year in the White House, societal anxiety surged, including among voters who identify as independents and Democrats. In the newest Axios/Momentive year-end survey, 2021 saw a 50% increase in fear about what 2022 will bring among independents. Democrats weren’t much more sanguine. They began last year with refreshing optimism as their party took control of the White House and Congress, with only 19% of Democratic voters declaring themselves fearful about 2021. By year’s end, that number had surged to 45%.
Reflecting this dour assessment, the RealClearPolitics polling average of Joe Biden’s approve/disapprove ratio also receded sharply for the last year, from a stellar 20-percentage-point surplus in his favor on Inauguration Day, to a minus- 10-point rating.
Given this environment, Republicans naturally grow more confident about the midterm elections. But taking nominal control of Capitol Hill won’t be enough. Will Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy and their lieutenants be content with stopping the woke and socialist-inspired agenda of progressives? Or will they boldly implement a full-throttle populist nationalist “America First” agenda?
In less than three months, President Biden’s approval rating has tumbled from a remarkable position in a polarized nation to the lowest of all but two presidents since 1945. Democrats are panicked though refusing to course-correct, hoping the pandemic will retreat, the economy will rebound, and their agenda will pass through Congress and turn out to be popular down the line.
The standing of the party with voters, at this time, isn’t in doubt. It’s awful. Biden’s average job approval rating on July 20 was 52.4% in the RealClearPolitics average before tanking precipitously and taking the party’s fortunes with him as the delta variant surged and American troops withdrew from Afghanistan in a deadly and tragic exit. RCP currently has him at 43.3%. His approval in Gallup has dropped 13 points since June, six points in this last month. The latest Quinnipiac University poll had Biden’s approval/disapproval at 38/53, down four points in three weeks. Specific findings on leadership questions were dreadful, with Biden’s numbers falling since April by nine points on the question of whether he cares about average Americans, seven points on whether he is honest, and nine points on whether he has good leadership skills.
The latest Morning Consult/Politico findings from last week showed Biden’s approval underwater across the board, at 45% approval overall, at 40% on the economy, 44% on health care, 40% on national security, 33% on immigration and 36% on foreign policy. The only number not underwater was Biden’s COVID approval of 49%-46%, 30 points lower than it was last spring. Across all polling Biden’s approval on the questions of competence and accomplishment have suffered. And that Morning Consult/Politico survey stated, “The shares of independent and Democratic voters who say Biden has underperformed expectations have doubled over the past three months.”
During a Save America Rally in Georgia this past weekend, former President Donald Trump referred to Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich as “a good man.” Much of Trump’s speech addressed voter fraud, including the independent report that came out last week on the Maricopa County ballot audit, which is being turned over to Brnovich for investigation.
Trump said, “Hopefully the Arizona attorney general, a good man, will do far more for his state than your attorney general has done for your state because your attorney general has not done what he’s supposed to be doing. What he’s supposed to be doing is free and clear and non-corrupt elections. They’re not doing that. We must elect strong, brave America first leaders who will be true champions for the people and for free, fair and honest elections.”
Former President Donald Trump did not commit to running for president in 2024 while on Fox News on Thursday, but said he’d make a decision “in the not too distant future.”
“I think you’ll be very happy,” Trump told host Greg Gutfeld. “I’ll make a decision in the not too distant future, but I love our country.”
Trump contradicted his previous statement to Sean Hannity in June, according to which he had already made a decision on whether he would run for president again.
The percentage of Republicans who say they trust the news has plummeted over the past five years despite Democrats’ faith in media remaining high, as the partisan gap in media trust continues to widen.
When asked “how much, if at all, do you trust the information that comes from national news organizations,” only 35% of Republicans said they have at least “some” trust, down from 70% in 2016, according to a Pew Research Center poll released Monday. Meanwhile, 78% of Democrats said they have “a lot” or “some trust” in the national news media, a slight drop from 86% in 2016.
The partisan divide in media trust is at its widest, and Republican trust in national news is at its lowest, since Pew Research Center began asking the question in 2016.
Nina Turner and Shontel Brown, the two leading Democrats vying to fill a House seat that includes Cleveland, are tied with 33% support, a new poll shows.
The Aug. 3 special election will likely determine who will succeed Housing Secretary Marcia Fudge, who resigned the seat after getting confirmed in March. Though Turner, a close ally of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, entered the race as an overwhelming favorite, Democrats seeking a moderate alternative have lined up behind Brown in recent weeks.
Brown has been endorsed by House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, Hillary Clinton, the Congressional Black Caucus and other high-profile members of the Democratic establishment, while Turner has the support of the “Squad” and other progressives.