Tag: economy

Voters Overwhelmingly Side with the GOP on the Economy: Poll

Arizona Sun Times Staff

Republicans hold a commanding lead among voters’ views toward which party handles the economy better as President Joe Biden continues to pitch his economic policy to the American people, according to a new NBC News poll.

Republicans lead Democrats 49% to 28% among registered voters surveyed on the economy, which is the largest lead in NBC polling since 1991, according to NBC News. Biden has sought to sell his economic policy, dubbed “Bidenomics,” to Americans, which consists of high-spending stimulus programs and green energy subsidies.

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Commentary: Could the Baby Boomer Retirement Wave and Labor Shortages Absorb the Recession?

Arizona Sun Times Staff

The national unemployment rate dipped to 3.5 percent in July, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, once again hitting more than 50-year lows.

It’s still peak employment as far as the eye can see. Even with the past two years’ high inflation dropping dramatically and disinflation usually correlating with higher unemployment and a recession, that simply has not occurred yet, despite all the warning signs typically associated with an economic slowdown or downturn.

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Commentary: As Hiring Slows Down, So Does the Economy

Arizona Sun Times Staff

The U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in June, according to the latest establishment survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, less than expected as 306,000 were added in May, as hiring slowed down nationwide. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained about the same at 3.6 percent.

Historically, when hiring slows down by establishments, that usually coincides with economic slowdowns and recessions. In the recent cycle, the 2020 and 2021 recovery from COVID notwithstanding, hiring peaked at about 5.2 percent annualized increase in Feb. 2022. Now, it’s down to 2.5 percent.

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North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum Launches Bid for White House, Joining Crowded Field of GOP Contenders

M.D. Kittle

At a Fargo events center packed with family, friends and neighbors, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum stressed his small-town roots, his success in building a multi-billion dollar software business on the Great Plains, governing a growing state, and his vision for an innovative America in announcing his bid for the White House.

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Commentary: Recession Looms as Banks Collapse and the Economy Slows

Arizona Sun Times Staff

The unemployment rate still remains at historic lows of 3.4 percent in April, according to the latest data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, amid other worrying signs for the U.S. economy including a continued collapse of job openings, a string of bank failure and an overall slowing Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

In the survey, as the population increased by 171,000, those not in the labor force increased by 214,000 as labor participation dipped slightly by 43,000. Those who said they had a job increased by 139,000 after a 577,000 increase in March. As a result, the unemployment rate has actually ticked downward for two consecutive months from 3.6 percent in February, to 3.5 percent in March and now 3.4 percent in April.

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Commentary: The Experts Were the Crisis in 2020

RealClearWire

The quote from Tolstoy’s War and Peace is a useful way to begin addressing the Washington Post editorial board’s confident assertion that “’A collective national incompetence in government’” was at the root of the U.S.’s alleged failure vis-à-vis the coronavirus in 2020. According to the Post quoting from a recently released report (“Lessons from the Covid War”), “The United States started out ‘with more capabilities than any other country in the world,’ but “it ended up with 1 million dead.” Were he still around, one guesses Tolstoy would mock the conceit of the Post’s editorialists.

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Commentary: On Economy, Biden Re-Election Faces Challenges

RealClearWire

As President Biden embarks on his reelection campaign, a majority of American voters are dissatisfied with his stewardship of the U.S. economy. Aware of the general angst among the electorate, Biden is threading the needle by saying he’s running on the strength of his overall record, while vowing to “finish the job” that he started when he stepped into the Oval Office. It’s a daunting task, with an overwhelming majority of registered voters expressing deep pessimism about the economy: 40.2% say the United States is currently in a recession, 17% call it a general state of stagnation, and 10.4% believe the country is in an outright depression.

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Fed Likely to Raise Interest Rates, But at a Less Aggressive Rate

Admin

The Federal Reserve is likely to further slow its historically aggressive pace of interest rate hikes at its Wednesday meeting as inflation cools, but consumers will still feel the pinch of higher interest rates, according to economists who spoke with the Daily Caller News Foundation. The Fed is likely to hike interest rate hikes by just 0.25 percentage points after its Wednesday meeting, setting the range for its target federal-funds rate to between 4.5% and 4.75%, due to slowing inflation, The Wall Street Journal reported.

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GOP Lawmaker Floats Mechanism to Default Spending to Current Levels to Avert Debt Ceiling Crises

Just the News

With the nation stuck at its $31.38 trillion debt limit and the Department of the Treasury imposing “extraordinary measures” to keep the government running, one GOP lawmaker is floating a new proposal to default federal spending to current levels to avert recurring standoffs over raising the debt ceiling.

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Arizona Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Abolish the State Income Tax

The Center Square

Although Arizona’s state income tax recently dropped to one of the lowest in the nation, a rookie lawmaker disagrees with the concept of having an income tax at all.  Rep. Austin Smith, a West Valley Republican, filed House Bill 2395. He said taxpayers have struggled to make ends meet due to the current economic environment. 

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House Speaker Fight Foreshadows Larger Debt Ceiling Battle on the Horizon for Republicans

Admin

The gridlock that paralyzed House Republicans over the past week in their quest to elect a new Speaker could be a foretaste of more to come, with party moderates and conservatives set to tangle in the months to come over raising the debt ceiling and reining in reckless government spending.

Although newly elected Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy ultimately prevailed in his bid for the office over a small but determined band of House Freedom Caucus members, his slim GOP majority in the House will be vulnerable if and when conservatives rebel again down the road, as some are predicting, in an effort to reassert debt reduction as a top priority for the party.

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Big Banks Predict Significant Economic Downturn in 2023: POLL

Admin

Of the 23 major financial institutions that work directly with the Federal Reserve, 16 anticipate a recession within the next 12 months, with two anticipating one the year after, according to a survey published by The Wall Street Journal Monday.

These institutions, which range from Bank of America to UBS, note that Americans are spending their savings, banks are heightening lending standards and the housing market is in a decline, all classic warning signs that a recession is impending, the WSJ reported. All of this is being exacerbated, the banks say, by the Fed’s historically aggressive pace of interest rate hikes, designed to blunt stubbornly persistent inflation.

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Commentary: The $1.7 Trillion Omnibus Prioritizes Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in Higher Education and STEM Spending

Admin

The national debt is growing, but Congress’ recent spending bill is a telltale sign that it has no intention of shrinking the deficit.

After receiving bipartisan support in the Senate, the House passed a 1.7 trillion spending bill on Dec 16, avoiding a government shutdown.

The bill allocates funding mostly to defense, including $45 billion to Ukraine, which will assist the country in its war effort against Russia.

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Commentary: It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (for the Washington, D.C. Establishment)

Admin

It is Christmas season.  The decorations are hung or need to be. Gifts are being purchased. The Advent Week of peace is being celebrated. Parties are being thrown. And Americans wind down from a long, stressful year.

Unfortunately, while most Americans refocus, the rest of the world doesn’t stop, but in many cases looks at this time as an opportunity to exploit.

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Commentary: Don’t Give an Inch on the Debt Ceiling

Admin

The dust has barely settled from the contentious midterms, and the battle lines are already being drawn for the next legislative fight in Washington: the debt ceiling. With the nation at unprecedented levels of indebtedness, the choice in this fight is a stark one: a path toward stability or fiscal Armageddon.

If that sounds hyperbolic, consider the following facts about America’s finances.

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Economists: Buying a Home May Not Get Any Cheaper Even If the Economy Tanks

Arizona Sun Times Staff

Despite expecting a recession and reduced inflation that would ordinarily put downward pressure on prices in 2023, a critical shortage of housing means prices are unlikely to change much, two economists told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The median sales price for existing homes increased 6.6% in October compared to the same month in 2021, jumping to $379,100, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), primarily due to demand outstripping supply, according to both Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research at the NAR, and E.J. Antoni, economist at the Heritage Foundation. The inventory of unsold existing homes fell to 1.22 million in October, down 10,000 from September 2022, and less than the 1.39 million unsold existing homes in December 2019, according to the National Association of Realtors.

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Investors Flee the Housing Market in Troubling Sign for the Economy

Arizona Sun Times Staff

Investors bought 30% fewer homes in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the same time period last year, as high borrowing costs pressured investors out of the housing market, according to real estate brokerage Redfin Tuesday.

Besides a brief plunge in the second quarter of 2020 in response to the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the decline was the steepest since 2008, and surpassed the 27.4% overall decline in home purchases nationwide, Redfin reported. The pandemic ultimately boosted demand for homes in suburban areas, sending investors on buying spree as they raised rents in those areas, in some cases by double digits, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

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Poll: Joe Biden Faces Strong Disapproval Among Majorities of Catholic Voters in Six Battleground States

Susan Berry, PhD

A new EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research survey published Tuesday found Joe Biden is facing strong disapproval from Catholic voters in six battleground states, with large majorities stating the economy is the most pressing issue in the 2022 midterm elections.

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Home Sales Plummet in Ominous Sign for Economy

Admin

Sales of existing homes fell in September for the eighth month in a row, as historically high mortgage rates pummel demand for homes, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced Thursday.

The 1.5% decline from August contributed to a 23.8% slide compared to September 2021, as the median existing-home sales price rose 8.4% from last September, from $355,100 to $384,800, the NAR reported. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that high mortgage rates were contributing to reduced demand, particularly in “expensive regions of the country.”

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California’s Economy Hurting as Companies Flee in Droves

Arizona Sun Times Staff

California officials are sounding the alarm after recent statistics showed that fewer corporate and start-up activity in the state was leading to a decline in tax revenue, according to a report by Bloomberg News.

This year, just nine companies based in the state had held initial public offerings (IPOs), which is when a company first lists shares for sale on the stock market – considered a milestone in its growth after strong activity and high valuation, the report revealed. In 2021, California – whose start-up ecosystem in ‘Silicon Valley’ is considered the most prodigious in the world – saw 81 companies conduct IPOs, making 2022 a year of a nine-fold decrease.

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New Kari Lake Ad Promises to Cut Taxes for Arizonans

Neil Jones

Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake told Arizonans that economic relief might be on the horizon in a new ad released Sunday detailing her plan to fight high costs if elected as the state’s next governor.

“Thanks to Joe Biden’s and Katie Hobbs’ liberal tax-and-spend agenda, Arizona has one of the highest rates of inflation in the country. Katie Hobbs and the Democrat Party won’t do anything to provide relief for Arizonans, but Kari Lake will,” said the Kari Lake Campaign in a statement.

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Commentary: Neither White House nor Common Man Can Evade Recession Data

Arizona Sun Times Staff

Newly released data from the Commerce Department show what some people have been saying for months: The nation is in recession.

Furthermore, the Biden administration’s cherry-picking of data has come back to bite it, with even its selected data points now being revised to indicate a recession. And while these numbers confirm the economy shrank in the first half of the year, the rest of this year holds little promise of recovery.

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Commentary: The Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Have only Destroyed $398 Billion of the $6 Trillion It Printed

Admin

“Our expectation has been we would begin to see inflation come down, largely because of supply side healing.  We haven’t. We have seen some supply side healing but inflation has not really come down.”

That was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Sept. 21, speaking to reporters following the central bank’s meeting where the Federal Funds Rate was once again increased 0.75 percent to its current range of 3 percent to 3.25 percent in a bid to combat sticky 8.3 percent consumer inflation the past year.

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Blake Masters Receives Endorsement from Leading Small Business Advocacy Organization

Neil Jones

Trump-endorsed Arizona Senate nominee Blake Masters received another big-ticket endorsement Thursday, this time from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the national leading small business advocacy group.

“Blake Masters has experience working in the business community and will be a strong supporter of Arizona’s small businesses in the U.S. Senate,” said Chad Heinrich, NFIB Arizona State Director. “His top priority in Congress will be to get the economy back on track and to create a pro-small business environment. He has also expressed an interest in improving workforce training, which will help small businesses immensely as they continue to manage a worker shortage. We are proud to endorse Blake Masters today and look forward to working with him.”

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Commentary: (Not) Sorry Democrats, Abortion Won’t Save You

Admin

The desperate attempts by the White House, congressional Democrats, and the corporate media to refocus voter attention on abortion rather than inflation are failing. Most reputable polls show that the electorate is far more concerned about mismanagement of the economy by President Biden and his collaborators in Congress than about threats to reproductive rights posed by “MAGA Republicans.” Contrary to Democratic hopes, November won’t be about abortion vs. inflation. The midterms will be a referendum on Biden’s performance, particularly as it affects inflation.

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New Poll Shows Americans Trust Republicans More than Democrats with the Economy

Admin

Voters overwhelmingly trust Republicans to manage the economy, a new poll ahead of this year’s midterm elections suggests, while also viewing the economy as the most important issue.

Roughly 52% of voters said that they trust Republicans to manage the economy, compared to 38% for Democrats, while only 1% of respondents said they agreed with the proposals of both parties to manage it, according to a poll conducted by the Times and Siena College, which measured the relative strength of both parties in advance of the election scheduled on Nov. 8. The economy has been the most important issue to voters heading into the polls; in a July edition of the same NYT/Siena poll, 20% called it the “most important problem facing the country today,” while roughly 76% said that it would be “extremely important” to them as they vote.

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Hispanic Americans Point to Crime, Immigration and the Economy as Key Concerns

ADN America

Recent reports indicate a dramatic political shift for Hispanic Americans, citing a defection from the left toward the right. While some mainstream media accounts dispute the shift, other national surveys are missing the on-the-ground factors that illustrate why a sizeable portion of Latinos are moving right politically, and the fact that many polls suggest Hispanics are drifting from the Democratic party over economic issues.

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Revised GDP Numbers Show the Economy Shrinking

Arizona Sun Times Staff

The Department Of Commerce revised the estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Thursday morning, finding similarly to July’s estimate that real GDP contracted in the second quarter of 2022.

The revised estimate for the second quarter finds that real GDP decreased annually at a rate of 0.6%, slightly less than the July 28 estimate of a 0.9% decrease, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Thousands Joined Arizona’s Workforce Last Month

The Center Square

Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady, remaining at 3.3% from June 2022 to July 2022. In that stretch, the state’s seasonally adjusted labor force increased by 7,209 individuals (0.2%); plus, Arizona added 18,300 jobs in that span, according to a report from the Arizona Commerce Authority. 

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Commentary: Federal Reserve’s False Assumptions Push the Economy into Recession

Admin
Federal Reserve

Based on its assumptions, the Federal Reserve is doing everything right by raising interest rates rapidly after years of easy money. It will certainly succeed in its goal of “cooling down” the economy.

Unfortunately, the Fed’s basic assumptions are wrong, and it has already begun reducing Americans’ standard of living, as indicated by this week’s Commerce Department report showing the nation’s gross domestic product fell for the second quarter in a row, meeting the common definition of a recession.

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U.S. Senate Passes Massive Tax and Spend Bill Targeting Carbon Emissions, Prescription Drug Costs, More

The Center Square

The U.S. Senate on Sunday passed a $740 billion new taxing and spending bill that seeks to combat climate change and allow the government to control the price of prescription medications, among other things.

No Republicans voted for the bill, named the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, in the divided 50-50 Senate, forcing Vice President Kamala Harris to break the tie. The measure must return to the House for a concurrence vote after senators passed several amendments Sunday. The House is expected to take the bill up again on Friday. If the House concurs, President Joe Biden has indicated he will sign it.

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Americans Taking Side Gigs to Make Ends Meet amid Soaring Costs

Arizona Sun Times Staff

The Labor Department’s newly released jobs report for July appeared to be good news for the economy — at first glance.

A dig below the surface, however, reveals a different picture: Americans, strapped for cash by inflation, taking on second jobs as families have less money to spend.

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‘It’s An Absurd Argument’: Economists Take Apart One of Biden’s Favorite Talking Points

Admin

The Biden administration’s oft-touted talking point that employment has boomed under the administration is misleading and instead simply a natural recovery from pandemic losses, economists told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Facing consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, sky-high inflation and plummeting consumer sentiment, the Biden administration has routinely cited a low unemployment rate and strong on-paper jobs creation as positive results of President Joe Biden’s economic stewardship. But the notion that these figures represent booming job creation is misleading since the economy has merely rebounded by adding back jobs that were lost during the pandemic and has still yet to reach pre-pandemic levels, economists told the DCNF.

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Economist: 30 Percent Chance That U.S. Enters a Recession Within a Year’s Time

The Center Square

A Goldman Sachs economist says there is a 30% probability of the U.S. entering a recession within one year and 48% within two years. 

Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. economist David Mericle outlined the probability of a recession at an event Tuesday and said that the likelihood of a recession would decrease if the U.S. had not entered one within two years.

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Commentary: After 18 Months of Biden, We Have Yet to Hit Bottom

Arizona Sun Times Staff

Next week will mark one and a half years since Joe Biden became president on Jan. 20, 2021. On July 20, every American should look within and ask: “Am I better off than I was 18 months ago?”

To Biden’s credit, the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.4% when he took office to 3.6% in June. Today’s figure is a notch higher than the 3.5% joblessness that Americans enjoyed in February 2020, thanks to President Donald Trump’s Republican tax cuts, deregulation, energy dominance, and other pro-growth initiatives.

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Commentary: The Biden Bust Could be Coming to a Neighborhood Near You Soon

Arizona Sun Times Staff

For many readers, the above title will conjure up memories of the 2008 housing crash caused by the proliferation of subprime mortgages and the subsequent tsunami of defaults. But a better corollary for the coming Biden bust is the Carter crash that occurred three decades earlier. During the final two years of Carter’s term, sales of existing and new homes collapsed because the Fed was forced to raise interest rates sharply to get double-digit inflation under control. This, in turn, produced double-digit mortgage rates that priced millions of potential buyers out of the market.

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Commentary: States Can Help Conservatives Secure Even More Legal Victories

Admin

America is currently in the midst of a broader political realignment. The political Left, which once upon a time purported to stand for the forgotten “little guy” against the titans of Big Business, has in recent years decided that Big Business is actually an ally of convenience in its long Gramsci-an “march” through the institutions. Chris Rufo has perhaps demonstrated this trend better than anyone else.

And the political Right, whose once-instinctive neoliberal proclivities made it a convenient ally for Big Business, is currently rethinking its approach to political economy in general, as well as its specific relationship to culturally leftist multinational corporations. The most tangible recent expression of this rethinking has been Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ crippling punishment of The Walt Disney Company for its coming out on behalf of sexually grooming innocent children in the Sunshine State.

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Commentary: Vast Majority of Americans Disapprove Biden’s Handling of Economy

Arizona Sun Times Staff

67 percent of Americans disapprove of President Joe Biden’s handling of the U.S. economy and 71 percent disapprove of his handling of inflation as gasoline prices continue hitting records at $5 a gallon, a recent Fox News poll taken mid-June found, even as Biden recently suggested a recession is not “inevitable”.

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Commentary: Recession Predictor 10-Year, 2-Year Treasuries Spread Inverts Once Again Amid Crushing Inflation

Admin

The spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries, a reliable indicator of incoming recessions that has predicted almost every recession in modern economic history, inverted once again overnight Monday amid financial markets turmoil with interest rates rising rapidly, the dollar strengthening and equities markets crashing.

That is almost certainly terrible news for President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats ahead of the 2022 Congressional midterms. The White House has attempted to highlight relatively low unemployment numbers as signs of a healthy economy, with President Biden on June 3 declaring the latest jobs numbers as “good news.”

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As Food Prices Soar with No End in Sight, Americans Change Habits

The Center Square

Americans are changing their shopping habits because of soaring food prices. And disruptions in the international farming community have some worried about the food supply heading into 2023.

The BMO Real Financial Progress Index, a quarterly survey from BMO and Ipsos, shows that 42% of surveyed adults “are changing how they shop for groceries,” including “opting for cheaper items, avoiding brand names and buying only the essentials.”

The report found “46% are either dining out less or consciously spending less when dining out.”

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‘A Source of Concern’: Jobs Growth Stalls, Unemployment Rises in May

Arizona Sun Times Staff

The U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May while the unemployment rate was largely unchanged at 3.6%, according to Department of Labor data released Friday.

The number of unemployed people ticked up slightly to about 6 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. Economists projected 328,000 Americans would be added to payrolls prior to Friday’s report, The Wall Street Journal reported.

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Majority of Americans Say They Are ‘Falling Behind’ Rising Cost of Living

The Center Square

The majority of Americans feel they cannot keep up with the cost of living as inflation and the price of goods continue to rise, according to new polling data.

A poll from NBC News asked Americans, “Do you think that your family’s income is … going up faster than the cost of living, staying about even with the cost of living, or falling behind the cost of living?”

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Small Businesses Struggle to Survive in Biden’s Economy: Poll

Arizona Sun Times Staff

Small business owners are increasingly pessimistic about U.S. economic conditions and overwhelmingly support an expansion of domestic fossil fuel infrastructure, the latest polling data showed.

Just 27% of small business owners agreed the economy was in “good” or “excellent” condition, according to a Job Creators Network Foundation poll released Friday and shared with The Daily Caller News Foundation. The figure represented the lowest rating of the current economic situation among small business owners since the group began the poll a year ago.

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‘Signs of Slowing’: Unemployment Remains Unchanged as Economists Predict Dim Future

Arizona Sun Times Staff
Woman organizing table contents in restaurant

The U.S. economy added 428,000 jobs in April while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%, according to Department of Labor data released Friday.

The number of unemployed people remained even at about 5.9 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. Economists projected 400,000 Americans would be added to payrolls prior to Friday’s report, The Wall Street Journal reported.

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Inflation Hits 10.9 Percent in Metro Phoenix, Highest of Major Metro Areas and Substantially Above National Average

Rachel Alexander

Inflation is soaring under the Biden administration, and it’s even worse in Phoenix. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation in metro Phoenix jumped 10.9% from February 2021 through February 2022, significantly more than the national average increase of 8.5% and higher than any other major metro area. This is one of the highest levels reported for Phoenix, the Common Sense Institute found.

The 8.5% inflation rate is the highest in the U.S. in 41 years. In 2020, the last year of Donald Trump’s presidency, it was only 1.5%. It began spiking as soon as Joe Biden entered office. The main goods driving the spike nationally are food, gas, and housing. 

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Commentary: A Biden Recession Is Virtually Guaranteed After 10-Year, 2-Year Treasuries Spread Inverts as Economy Overheats from Rampant Inflation

Arizona Sun Times Staff
Joe Biden

The spread between 10-year treasuries and 2-year treasuries, a leading recession indicator whose inversions have predicted almost all of the U.S. economic recessions in modern history, on March 31 inverted for the first time since Sept. 2019.

When the 10-year, 2-year spread inverts, a recession tends to result on average 14 months afterward, sometimes sooner, sometimes later. The one time there was a head fake on the 10-year, 2-year was in the mid-1990s at a time when inflation was much lower Visit Site than it is now.

As an aside, potentially the Sept. 2019 inversion might have ended up being a premature indicator, too, but then Covid and global economic lockdowns in early 2020 went ahead and ensured a recession even if one was not due. On the other hand, at that point it had been 11 years since the prior recession and so the business cycle was going to end sooner or later.

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Biden’s Job Approval Plummets to New Low

Arizona Sun Times Staff
Joe Biden

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating plummeted to a new low as concerns grew over the war in Ukraine and surging inflation, according to an NBC News poll released Sunday.

Only 40% of Americans surveyed approved of the job Biden has done through his first two years, marking the lowest rating since he took office, according to the poll. Just 16% of registered voters strongly approved of Biden’s job, and 71% of those surveyed said the country is “off on the wrong track.”

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