On primary election day in Arizona, gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake’s campaign is disputing a recent Emerson poll that shows her in a statistical tie with her main opponent, Karrin Taylor Robson.
The poll, which was conducted between July 28 and July 30 among 600 “very likely Republican primary voters and individuals who already voted,” shows Robson with a slight 47 percent to 46 percent edge over Lake.
But Lake’s campaign contends that there are issues with the poll, namely that third-place contender Matt Salmon, who is polling in the single digits in several other polls, does not appear to be included in Emerson’s poll.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball notes in his analysis of the poll that younger voters tend to prefer Lake.
“A stark age divide exists within the Republican gubernatorial primary,” he said. “Voters under 50 break for Lake by 20 points, voters between 50 and 64 are split: 46% support Lake and 45% Taylor Robson, and voters over 65 break for Taylor Robson by a 19-point margin.”
Lake’s campaign told The Arizona Sun Times that this shows another flaw in the Emerson poll.
The campaign says that since 65 percent of survey respondents were contacted via landline, the poll is skewed in favor of older voters who prefer Robson, as those are the people who tend to still use landline telephones.
The Lake campaign also says that there is no ideological balance in the poll.
She has been endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump, and says the poll does not distinguish whether the respondents tend to favor Trump or other Republicans.
“The media are so desperate to convince themselves that Karrin Taylor Robson can win,” Lake’s Chief Strategist Billy Grant told The Sun Times Tuesday. “The Emerson College poll is a clear outlier, as every other poll commissioned in Arizona within the last week has Kari Lake leading by double digits. Kari Lake will be victorious tonight, and will finally prove these fake pollsters wrong once and for all.”
Emerson did not immediately return a comment request.
The RealClearPolitics average of several aggregated polls still shows Lake with a 47 percent to 38 percent lead over Robson.
Her campaign is confident going into Tuesday’s primary election.
“We feel highly confident. Kari is working hard traveling to all corners of the state. We had a huge rally with over 1,000 people in Tucson last night. And last week five polls came out with Kari leading by double digits,” Grant told The Sun Times Monday. “Combined with Robson‘s private jet and state plane scandal, we couldn’t ask for a better last week of the campaign.”
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Pete D’Abrosca is a reporter at The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kari Lake” by Gage Skidmore CC2.0 and “Karrin Taylor Robson” is by Karrin Taylor Robson.