Emerson Poll Shows Tight Races for Arizona Senate, Governor

An Emerson poll released Friday shows that both the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in Arizona, are essentially dead-heats.

The poll shows Senator Mark Kelly (R-AZ) leading his insurgent challenger Blake Masters by only two points, 47 percent to 45 percent. Five percent of voters remain undecided, and four percent say they will vote for someone else. Meanwhile, 53 percent say they expect Kelly to win, regardless of whom they support.

Even tighter is the contentious gubernatorial race between Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) and firebrand former television news anchor Kari Lake.

That race is tied at 46 percent for each candidate, with six percent undecided and two percent saying they will vote for another candidate. Meanwhile, 54 percent of voters expect that Lake will beat Hobbs.

“Blake Masters, Mark Kelly, and Kari Lake all hold an overall 48% favorability, while 46% of Arizona voters view Katie Hobbs favorably,” the pollsters say. “Forty-nine percent have an unfavorable view of Kelly, 48% of Masters, 47% of Lake, and 43% of Hobbs.”

The poll says that the economy is the biggest issue of concern for Arizonans. That’s good news for Masters and Lake.

“For those who say the economy is their determining issue this November, 63% support Masters and 66% support Lake. By contrast, 98% and 99% of those who say abortion access is the most important issue support Kelly and Hobbs,” said Spencer Kimball, the Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.

The poll was conducted between September 6 and 7 among 627 “very likely general election voters.” According to Emerson the data were weighted “by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation, and region.”

The margin of error for the poll is 3.85 percent.

The pollsters asked Arizonans about a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

“A majority of Arizona voters (53%) disapprove of President Biden, while 40% approve of the job he is doing as President,” the poll said. “In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 44% of Arizona voters support Trump while 41% support Biden. Thirteen percent would vote for someone else and 2% are undecided.”

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Pete D’Abrosca is a contributor at The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Pete on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kari Lake” by The Kari Lake. Photo “Mark Kelly” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 3.0. Photo “Katie Hobbs” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0. Photo “Blake Masters” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0. Photo “Arizona Capitol” by Pima County Public Library.


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One Thought to “Emerson Poll Shows Tight Races for Arizona Senate, Governor”

  1. wrausch

    This is another sick attempt of the left to confuse and distract conservative voters. While President Trump draws thousands of people at his rallies, Bidung only draws flies. So how can anyone believe Bidung’s supporters will flock to his evil minions and forsake Trump’s chosen candidates. I call BS. The communists will be crushed!