by Tom Joyce
Further down the ballot, Arizona voters should expect some highly-competitive statewide races, a new poll shows.
While the incumbent treasurer appears to be in a position to win her re-election bid, the races for secretary of state, attorney general, and superintendent of public instruction are tighter, according to OH Predictive Insights’ (OHPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll. In the latter three races, no candidate leads by more than three points, making them statistically tied because of the poll’s 3.77% margin of error.
The Treasurer race was the least competitive of the bunch polled. Incumbent Republican Kimberly Yee holds a solid 11-point lead (46% to 35%) over her Democratic opponent, Martin Quezada. However, 1-in-5 voters remain undecided in the race.
“The dynamic of the treasurer’s race is interesting because it is the only OHPI-polled race in which the Republican candidate is an incumbent and not endorsed by Trump but still leads by double-digits,” Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research, said in a press release. “This could potentially point to a lower electoral ceiling for candidates following in former President Trump’s model and/or the benefit of incumbency.”
Yee is outperforming all of the other statewide Republican candidates among men (+18), Rural County voters (+34), and voters without a college degree (+22), according to the pollster.
However, Yee’s strong support and incumbent status make her an outlier in these statewide races. The others are far closer.
The secretary of state race is one of these highly-competitive contests.
Arizona state representative Mark Finchem, R-Oro Valley, holds a tight two-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Adrian Fontes (43% to 41% percent). However, since AZPOP last polled this race in September, the share of undecideds has decreased by eight points, and more than half of those former undecideds are backing Fontes. Finchem has former president Donald Trump’s endorsement in this race.
Another Trump-endorsed candidate is in a similar position in the Attorney General race. Republican Abe Hamadeh’s lead is also within the margin of error. He leads Democrat Kris Mayes 42% to 39%, but one-fifth of voters remain undecided in this race.
Meanwhile, there is no Trump-endorsed candidate in the Superintendent of Public Instruction race.
However, Republican challenger Tom Horne holds a one-point lead over incumbent Democrat Kathy Hoffman in the latest poll (42% to 41%). Meanwhile, 17% of voters say they’re undecided in this race.
“With only a few weeks away from the General Election, the relative lack of differentiation between most of Arizona’s down-ticket races points to a hyper-polarized political environment where turning out your base and capturing those few undecided voters will make the difference between victory and defeat,“ Noble said in the release.
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Tom Joyce is a regular contributor to The Center Square.
Photo “Mark Finchem” by Mark Finchem.
