New ‘Late Exit’ Poll Finds Eight Percent More Arizona Voters Said They Voted for Lake over Hobbs

Rasmussen Reports and College Republicans United issued the results of a type of “late exit” poll on Friday, revealing that likely Arizona voters said they voted for former Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake over Governor Katie Hobbs 51 percent to 43 percent.

Also, the poll found these likely Arizona voters voted for Abe Hamadeh and Mark Finchem over their Democratic opponents who won those respective state races.

The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday.

In the gubernatorial poll, 5 percent said they voted for someone else, and 2 percent said they were unsure. Women voted for Lake over Hobbs by a 49 to 43 percent margin. Similarly, Arizonans have a more favorable view of Lake than Hobbs. Over 50 percent view Lake positively; 30 percent find her “very favorable,” and 21 percent “somewhat favorable.” In contrast, Hobbs’ favorability is at 44 percent, with 25 percent viewing her as “very favorable” and 19 percent as “somewhat favorable.”

When asked who they voted for in the attorney general’s race, 49 percent of likely voters said Hamadeh, compared to 43 percent for Kris Mayes. In addition, 4 percent said someone else, and 5 percent were unsure of who to vote for.

In the Arizona Secretary of State’s race, 46 percent said they voted for Finchem to 43 percent who voted for Adrian Fontes. Furthermore, 5 percent saying they voted for someone else, and 6 percent were unsure. Women also preferred Finchem and Hamadeh over their Democratic opponents. 

The survey also asked voters about election fraud in the fall midterm election. Over 50 percent found it at least somewhat likely that “2022 election irregularities in heavily Republican areas of Arizona happened intentionally to suppress Republican votes.” That broke down to 31 percent who found it “very likely,” 19 percent who found it “somewhat likely,” 14 percent who found it “not very likely,” 29 percent who said “not likely at all,” and 8 percent not sure.

When asked whether problems in the Maricopa County election affected the outcome of races in Arizona, 55 percent found it likely; 35 percent said it was “very likely,” and 20 percent said it was “somewhat likely.” Another 11 percent said it was “not very likely,” 29 percent said “not at all likely,” and 6 percent weren’t sure.

Similarly, about half thought cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election; 29 percent said it was “very likely,” and 20 percent found it “somewhat likely.” Of the rest, 11 percent thought it was “not very likely,” 31 percent found it “not at all likely,” and 9 percent weren’t sure.

When asked if they would choose former President Trump or President Joe Biden for president if the election were held now, 50 percent said Trump and 39 percent chose Biden.

Blake Masters, who ran for U.S. Senate last year, challenging incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), did not perform as well in the survey. Voters said they chose Kelly over him, 50 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent indicating they chose someone else and 2 percent not sure. Republicans were concerned that the Libertarian in that race, Marc Victor, who polled as high as 9 percent shortly before the election, was taking votes away from Masters, but Victor dropped out and endorsed Masters.

The poll also asked voters about the congressional races, whether they chose the Republican or Democratic candidate. Fully 9 percent more said they voted for the Republican candidate, 48 percent to 39 percent.

Voters were asked who they preferred for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, and they chose Trump with 33 percent. Another 24 percent preferred Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 35 percent chose another candidate, and 8 percent weren’t sure.

The survey included several questions about illegal immigration, revealing a strong dislike for it by Arizonans. A significant 68 percent said they favor “immigration policies that prevent illegal border crossings and illegal immigrants from getting jobs in the U.S.,” to 18 percent who oppose it and 14 percent who weren’t sure.

Rasmussen Reports has been considered one of the most accurate pollsters by the political site 538, although that rating recently slipped to a B since the accusations of election fraud intensified. In the 2020 presidential race, 538 ranked the pollster fifth in accuracy out of 26 polling companies. The GOP-aligned Trafalgar Group ranked second. Several mainstream media pollsters ranked at the bottom, including CNN, The Los Angeles Times, ABC News/Washington Post, The New York Times, and the Democratic Party’s Public Policy Polling.

Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll several days before the 2020 presidential election in Arizona, and found Trump defeating Biden by three points.

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Rachel Alexander is a reporter at The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Rachel on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kari Lake” by The Kari Lake. Photo “Katie Hobbs” by Katie Hobbs. Background Photo “Arizona State Capitol” by Wars. CC BY-SA 3.0.