Data Analysts Question How 14 Percent of Arizona Voters Flipped to Oppose Trump Candidates Despite GOP Voter Registration Advantage

Investigations are continuing into the election anomalies in Arizona, where Republicans performed fairly well except for in the top four Trump-endorsed races. Since there are 4 percent more Republicans than Democrats in the state (as well as in Maricopa County), and most of the Republicans were easily beating their Democratic opponents in mainstream polls, data analysts are looking closely at the numbers. Analytics 805 examined the numbers of who voted in most of the races, and discovered that Republican candidates outside of the four races performed incredibly well in contrast, as much as 30 percent better.

Analytics 805 founder Thomas Cole told The Arizona Sun Times, “We took the Arizona election numbers and made this chart, to visually show the improbability of Kari Lake losing, while the entire state of Arizona voted Republican for the State Senate and U.S. House races. We saw 14 percent more support for Republicans than Democrats  in the State Senate races. So it makes no sense to think those Republicans suddenly flipped to Democrat Katie Hobbs for governor by this large of a margin.”

Cole said he became interested in the data after watching an episode of Joe Oltmann’s Conservative Daily Podcast, where Oltmann crunched the numbers.

The numbers from the Secretary of State’s website showed a 17,000 vote difference in the gubernatorial race, 1,287,890 for Hobbs versus 1,270,774 for Lake. That is a .33 percent difference. In the Attorney General’s race, there is only about a 500 vote difference, 1,254,613 to 1,254,102. In the Secretary of State’s race, the spread was about 120,000 votes apart, 1,320,628 versus 1,200,411, a 5 percent difference. In the U.S. Senate race, 126,000 votes separated the two, 1,322,026 to 1,196,308, also a 5 percent difference.

In contrast, Republicans won hugely in other Arizona races. Incumbent State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, a Republican who was not endorsed by Donald Trump and who ran a relatively low-profile office, received about 283,000 more votes than her challenger, 1,390,135 to 1,107,036, which is a significant 11 percent difference.

Republicans received about 320,000 more votes than Democrats in the nine U.S. House races, 1,324,961 to 1,004,461. That comes down to 56.87 percent versus 43.12 percent. In the State Senate races, Republicans received about 250,000 more votes than Democrats, 1,254,632 to 1,038,497. That breaks down to a significant difference between parties of around 14 percent.

“Does anyone really believe that voters preferred GOP State Senate candidates with a 14 percent advantage, yet swung back dramatically to favor Democrats by up to 5 percent margins in four other races?” Cole said. “It defies the odds. I can understand a few percentage points difference, but around one-third of voters voting Democrat in some races but Republican in others makes no sense, the margins are too grossly different.”

Mainstream polls prior to the election showed three of the four Trump-endorsed candidates with solid leads over their opponents. Data for Progress showed Lake up four points over Democrat Katie Hobbs. One of the few polls in the Secretary of State’s race, CNN, showed Republican Mark Finchem four points ahead of Democrat Adrian Fontes, and a Highground poll showed Republican Abe Hamadeh leading Democrat Kris Mayes by five points. The U.S. Senate race was closer, with Data for Progress showing Republican Blake Masters trailing Democrat incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly by 1 point.The top left-wing journalists in Arizona were bracing for Democrat losses. Arizona Republic columnist Laurie Roberts, who steadily insisted Hobbs was going to win throughout much of the race, changed her mind in September, hinting that Hobbs might lose because she refused to debate Lake and had less charisma. Roberts declared in an October op-ed, “Democrats in Arizona are known for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but Katie Hobbs’ refusal to debate Kari Lake represents a new level of political malpractice.” She concluded, “Hobbs isn’t just letting down Democrats; she may well be letting down Arizona.”

Similarly, Arizona Republic columnist E.J. Montini predicted in September, “I do believe, however, that refusing to participate in a debate can – and will – cost Democrat Katie Hobbs votes in her campaign to become Arizona’s governor.”

The Trump-endorsed candidates believe there was voter disenfranchisement and suppression in the election, since over 70 of the vote centers on Election Day, which were almost all in heavily Republican areas, experienced technical problems resulting in long lines and voters leaving sometimes without even trying to cast a problematic ballot in “Door 3.”

Both Lake and Hamadeh have filed lawsuits over the election problems, with the heavy-hitter lawsuits planned for Dec. 10 or shortly thereafter.

– – –

Rachel Alexander is a reporter at The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Rachel on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected]
Photo “People Voting” by Phil Roeder. CC BY 2.0.

Editor’s note: This article has been updated to reflect corrections to a programming error. 



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61 Thoughts to “Data Analysts Question How 14 Percent of Arizona Voters Flipped to Oppose Trump Candidates Despite GOP Voter Registration Advantage”

  1. […] registration over Democrats in both Maricopa County and statewide. Despite this, 14% of voters supposedly flipped to oppose Arizona's top Trump candidates. Just like how no one believed Donald Trump lost the state […]

  2. […] as secretary of state, certified her own still controversial election as governor on December […]

  3. […] as secretary of state, certified her own still controversial election as governor on December […]

  4. […] Data analysts question how 25 percent of Arizona voters flipped to oppose Trump candidates despite G… […]

  5. JG

    It is clear the election was stolen. Hobbs is SoS so she overseas the elections and per AZ Law should have recused herself. The same for election officials in various counties (especially Maricopa) that were part of Dem PACs as they should have recused themselves.

    1. JGL

      Republcans when they lose always say “It is clear the election was stolen.” lol, like clockwork

  6. James

    There’s nothing to see here. Move along citizen.

  7. […] Data Analysts Question How 25 Percent of Arizona Voters Flipped to Oppose Trump Candidates Despite G… […]

  8. xsnake

    Arizonans obviously couldn’t care less about corrupt elections.

  9. Randall Myers

    I would certainly look at the voting machines used in the voting process, and also those to tabulate the votes. If they were dominion voting machines, it has been said by the corporate officials of dominion that these machines are capable of flipping the boat if they are programmed to do so, this would mean that the supervisor of elections who is also running for governor, could have tampered with the machines in order for them to flip the boat look at the damn machines and I think you will find your answer. If they have an already been tampered with I would have a revote paper, revote and manually counted. !!!

  10. stpaulchuck

    I don’t know or have heard of many people that vote split ticket so this is just another stolen election IMAO

  11. Will

    It’s called voter fraud. Felons will soon run AZ, just like the federal government. Except the people running the federal government are traitors, since they are using their positions gained by felonious election theft to henefit our enemies.

  12. Roger W Campbell

    I voted for Biggs in D5, Biggs destroyed his opponent 57% to 37% Biggs is a bit farther right than even Kari Lake and also a “Trump” candidate.

    yet they are telling us that Katie Hobbs won in District 5 by 51% or better?

    We are being lied to.
    An audit, hand counted, with both GOP and DNC observers is the only thing that will put this to bed.

    1. JD

      This fraud election, by Hobbs is obvious. A forensic audit MUST BE PERFORMED. .I Absolutely agree. I ABSOLUTELY AGREE. The DemoRATS are cheating… AGAIN. It is called fraud. We must have a FORENSIC AUDIT. Too much fraud has occurred in the last two plus years.

  13. Jim

    Ask why the printers were replaced by older outdated models just 2 weeks before the general election. Why would any Republican or conservative independent vote for 3 communists knowing exactly what they stand for?

  14. Founders1791

    Mail-in Ballots were sent to Runbeck Election Services ‘to be scanned’ for signature verification – THAT’S A LIE – this is a data collection point to reveal the count of who, where, and when they voted to determine the ratios of ballots needed to be replaced in the counting centers to ensure their victory.

    We saw the same thing in 2020 in GA, PA, WS, MI, etc.

    Runbeck is a key data collection point who processed 70 million ballots in 22 states during these midterms and are owned by Democrats

  15. No one

    Election fraud pure and simple, there is no way Kari Lake or any other Republican lost.

  16. […] Data analysts question how 25 percent of Arizona voters flipped to oppose Trump candidates despite G… […]

  17. Rick Morrow

    It’s simple. They rugged it.

  18. […] 8:12 pm KLWR posted a link to an article on The Arizona Sun Times website entitled "Data Analysts Question How 25 Percent of Arizona Voters Flipped to Oppose Trump Candidates Despite …. Along with the video the following quote from the article was […]

  19. Ignatz

    Easy to explain: The GOP is now a party that outlawed Roe v. Wade, attacked our nation’s Capitol, defend the stealing of classified info, and are weakening America by pretending they didn’t lose when they lost.

    A whole lot of Republicans are DISGUSTED by these radical, anti-American extremists who now call themselves Republican.

    They aren’t a party anymore: they’re a cult. And lifelong Republicans are walking away because we love our country more than we love the letter “R.”

    1. Tom Betts

      Your ignorance is mind blowing.

    2. Kevin

      Then why did they vote for Republicans in the down ticket offices. By your logic, all Dem candidates should have outperformed all Republicans.

    3. Richard Pinkham

      You need to see a doctor quick because I think you are having a stroke. Or you just a stupid troll that is intent on spreading lies. Like the scarecrow, a man with no brain, and no where to get attention but to try and spread propaganda for the communist democrats. Maybe someday we can round up all your type of people and give you the place you want so badly. A one way ticket to North Korea. A place you will love, its just like what you are trying to make this country. And Americans love our country as it was founded. So leave it the fuck alone.. Democrats are the cultists, with their baby killing and wanting to rape small children and demanding everybody bow to their perversions. Ya’al some mentally sick MFers FYI real democrats are walking away from your party..

    4. LuzMaria

      Projecting again.
      That’s what Dems/lefties do.
      Hopefully Lake as well as Abe are able to reach a judge not nominated by the corrupt dem/left party.


      You didn’t read the article, did you?

    6. Zeke

      The problems you raise sound like a mainstream media narrative crafted to herd sheep like yourself into a nice corner where you will wait until told to move somewhere else. Have a backbone, don’t believe the hype you are being told, and open your eyes. If you want to side with democrat demons, don’t blame republicans, have some balls and stand up for your own moronic choices. Either that or you are a shill….either way, good luck.

    7. Don

      Sounds like a list of talking points from the DNC. Do you even attempt to support your claims by actually following up on what the other side is claiming? Face it . . . you have a moronic and corrupt President who can’t utter a complete sensible sentence without reading from a teleprompter and who is a puppet of Susan Rice and Ron Kaine. And to suggest that the GOP is a cult is utterly irresponsible and without a shred of merit. As a member of the Republican Party, I am as much opposed to Mitch McConnell as I am either Pelosi or Schiff. And no, it’s not easy to explain if you take your party blinders off and start with the position that Washington, DC is overrun with corruption on both side of the aisle.

  20. Stephen Crosson

    Now what

  21. […] the Arizona Sun Times, a liberal outlet, posted a report that agrees with our assessment of the 2022 […]

  22. John Sellers

    The explanation for the Hobbs vs Lake race is very simple.
    Independents like me who voted twice for Trump were agonizing over their choice. It was hard to vote dem but I finally gritted my teeth at the last minute on polling day.
    All my friends did the same.
    Looking at Lakes reaction since, thank goodness.
    How do you know she’s making stuff up…when she’s tweeting


      Sure John. You voted for Trump twice, but voted for Katie Hobbs. Very believable.

  23. J Smith

    As Joe Biden said after the 2020 election:” what matters in winning elections today is not who votes, but who counts the votes”. The machines counting the votes are rigged to give enough advantage to individual candidates. Between 2020 and 2022 the vote rigging has become more and more sophisticated to the point where election results can be whatever the people controlling the machines want. This report is proof of my theory.

  24. AZ is now more crooked than NYC and schittcago combined. Welcome to the USSA.

  25. ron

    hobbs cheated, the demonrats have the system rigged, plan and simple!!