A new poll from the Trafalgar Group shows Trump-endorsed Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters gaining momentum against his opponent, incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ), a development which his campaign celebrated.
“This race is a dead heat despite Mark Kelly spending $60 million to paint himself as some type of moderate, when he’s been nothing more than a rubber stamp for Joe Biden’s failed agenda. Blake Masters is gaining momentum every day as voters learn about Kelly’s extreme voting record and reject him,” Masters’ press contact Zachery Henry told The Arizona Sun Times.
The Trafalgar Group found that 46.6 percent of surveyed Arizonans favored Kelly; however, Masters only trailed by a single percentage point at 45.4, which is within the poll’s margin of error. Only 5 percent of respondents remained unsure about this race. In a poll conducted by the group in August, the divide was slightly larger as Masters trailed 44.3 percent to Kelly’s 47.6, demonstrating promising growth for the nominee.
Statistical tie 🔥 https://t.co/mGMRHt4iw7
— Blake Masters for U.S. Senate Press (@MastersPress) September 18, 2022
The poll, in which 1,080 likely 2022 general election voters responded to live calls, text messages, and emails, was conducted between September 14 and 17. The largest demographic of respondents were white female Republicans between the ages of 45 and 64, although 22 percent of responses were from Hispanics, and 35.8 from Democrats.
Furthermore, the poll showcased results for three other highly contested statewide races, each of which showcased strong leads for Republican nominees.
In the gubernatorial race, Republican Kari Lake secured support from 50 percent of those surveyed, giving her a near-5-percent lead over Democrat opponent Katie Hobbs. Less than 5 percent of respondents were still undecided in this race. This demonstrates a leap in support compared to the previous Trafalgar Group poll, in which Lake led Hobbs by less than 1 percent. Of note, the poll was conducted the same week Hobbs officially declined to debate Lake in person before the November election.
It's the start of a new work week.
We would like to reiterate our demand that @katiehobbs recuse herself from her role as Secretary of State in Arizona, for all matters involving the Gubernatorial election.
An Election she is currently losing by 4.4% according to Trafalgar. pic.twitter.com/eGroWqf9gC
— Kari Lake War Room (@KariLakeWarRoom) September 19, 2022
As for the secretary of state race, State Senator Mark Finchem (R-Tucson) has a commanding lead of 47.5 percent over his opponent Adrian Fontes, who shows 41.1 percent of respondents in favor. The race does, however, have the highest undecided rate in the poll at 11.4 percent.
In response to the poll’s results, Finchem celebrated “creaming” his opponent.
“BREAKING: Retired Police Officer Mark Finchem is creaming disgraced former failed Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes for Arizona Secretary of State,”Finchem tweeted.
— Mark Finchem (@RealMarkFinchem) September 18, 2022
Moreover, Abe Hamadeh saw the single most significant lead of any nominee in the poll. He leads opponent Kris Mayers’ 41 percent support by nine points, the same percentage as those still undecided in the race.
Let’s go! pic.twitter.com/WMgNAhHNfF
— Abe Hamadeh for Arizona AG (@AbrahamHamadeh) September 18, 2022
Another poll conducted by the Emerson College among likely Arizona general election voters on September 6 and 7 painted a comparable situation for the Masters campaign. Kelly was still ahead, but by a similarly small 2 percent, which is also within the survey’s 3.85 percent margin of error. The college also surveyed for the governor’s race, which showed a closer race than the Trafalgar Group, with Lake and Hobbs tied at 46 percent. However, this poll was conducted before Hobbs declined to debate Lake.
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