New Poll Shows Kari Lake in Lead with the Primary Election Only Days Away

A new poll from Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) shows leaders emerging in several GOP races across the state, including Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. Arizona’s primary elections will take place on August 2.

“The inter-party battle of the GOP is about to hit its climax and the data indicates Lake is in a commanding position,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “In these final weeks of the race, Lake’s campaign is like Katniss Everdeen – the girl on fire.”

The polls were conducted on Wednesday as a blended live caller/peer-to-peer text survey. Demographics were based on likely Republican primary voters. Results compare a candidate’s support at the beginning of the month to the most recent results.

In early July, former Fox 10 News Anchor Lake saw a slight lead in support with 39 percent; however, over the month, that number jumped to 51 percent. While the race was relatively close in early July, Lake now has a significant lead over her Republican opponent, Karrin Taylor Robson, who currently has 33 percent of support from respondents. Only 12 percent of those surveyed remain undecided in this race.

Another close race is for an Arizona Senate chair, where the primary winner will move on to face incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (D) in the November general election. Currently, Trump-endorsed Blake Masters leads the five runners with 36 percent supporting him, up from 25 at the beginning of the month. In second, Jim Lamon is favored by 21 percent of responders. Trailing in third, current Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich has 12 percent of the support, down from 14 at the beginning of the month.

“Masters is in a strong position with a fractured field and will likely be moving on to take on incumbent Mark Kelly,” said Noble.

In the race to determine who will take Brnovich’s seat as Arizona’s next attorney general, Trump-endorsed Abe Hamadeh saw the biggest increase in support over the month across the poles. Beginning with only seven percent, Hamadeh now has support from 31 percent of respondents.

“Let’s finish off the establishment weak kneed Republicans and the Raul Grijalva Democrat once and for all,” tweeted Hamadeh in response to the news.

Second-place candidate Rodney Glassman also saw a spike in support, jumping from six to 16 percent. However, 35 percent are still unsure about this election.

Moreover, Arizona State Representative Mark Finchem (R-Marana) holds a commanding lead in the race for Secretary of State with 31 percent in favor, nearly triple that of this poll’s runner-up, Beau Lane, with 11 percent.

Most respondents were still unsure about the race for treasurer, although that did not stop Kimberly Yee from leaping into the lead, with 33 percent supporting her.

The final race covered by the polls is for the superintendent of Public Instruction, which is currently in a deadlock. Former Attorney General Tom Horne previously held the lead. Yet, Shiry Sapir came from being in last place to tie him as both candidates now have 21 percent of respondents supporting them, although 44 percent remain unsure.

The Arizona Sun Times reported that a previous poll from OHPI showed that most Arizona GOP voters were unsure who to vote for earlier this month, but that seems to have changed in some races.

The Maricopa County Elections Department recently tweeted that in-person voters should be sure to use the provided pens at voting stations. Voters can find their nearest voting center here.

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Neil Jones is a reporter for The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Neil on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kari Lake” by The Kari Lake. Photo “Karrin Taylor Robson” by Karrin Taylor Robson. Background Photo “Arizona Capitol Building” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0.


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2 Thoughts to “New Poll Shows Kari Lake in Lead with the Primary Election Only Days Away”

  1. hal whitney

    Lake, Finchem and Hamadeh…that is a good signal for the…FUTURE…of the “Purple State of Arizona” as the “Arizona Republic”, the failing “newspaper of record” assures us (LOL) !
    Of course the republican establishment…the GOPe…is losing…Robson, Brnovich, etc. are mired in inconsequential numbers ! These facts taken with the choice of Sinema to walk a fine line as a committed LEFTIST, vs. moderate Senator, do not auger well for democrats,
    and other leftists !
    Let’s hope the “magic” vote changing machinery doesn’t alter the will of We the People.

    1. hal whitney

      I forgot to mention the effect of President Trump’s powerful support of Lake, Finchem and Hamadeh ! POTUS 45’s backing was and is necessary for election and re-election of candidates, to public office in nearly every precinct in America.
      GO TRUMP !
      MAGA !